With two days to go before Election Day, new polls show Republicans with leads in three states that could help them win majority control of the Senate.
From the NBC News/Marist polls released Sunday:
- Kentucky: Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell leads Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, 50% to 41%, among likely voters.
- Georgia: David Perdue leads Democrat Michelle Nunn, 48% to 44%.
- Louisiana: Mary Landrieu leads GOP challengers Bill Cassidy and Rob Maness in a three-way race and is poised to get the top spot for a Dec. 6 runoff. But in head-to-head matchups, 50% of likely voters would support either Republican candidate, while Landrieu would trail by either 4 or 5 percentage points.
President Obama’s unpopularity is a contributing factor in each state, the NBC News/Marist polls show. His 41% job-approval rating in Georgia looks good when compared to 39% in Louisiana and 32% in Kentucky.
Republicans need to net six seats to oust Harry Reid and the Democrats from power in the Senate. The GOP is favored to win Democratic-held seats in West Virginia, Montana and South Dakota.
The political math means the GOP would need to win three more Democratic-held seats from the most competitive states. The focus is on Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina and New Hampshire. Complicating the equation are the tight races for GOP-held seats in Kentucky, Kansas and Georgia.
A Libertarian on the ballot in Georgia could mean Nunn and Perdue keep slugging it out through the holidays and face off in a Jan. 6 runoff. The Kansas race between GOP Sen. Pat Roberts and independent Greg Orman is also part of the political math, since Orman hasn’t said whether he’ll caucus with Republicans or Democrats if he wins.
The Des Moines Register Poll released Saturday night buoyed the hopes of Republicans in Iowa. The survey showed Republican Joni Ernst, a state senator, over Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley with a 7-percentage-point lead among likely voters.
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